Smarkets' course to prominence in the United States of America might be paved with sports event contracts like the kind that are (rather controversially) provided by prediction market Kalshi.

Jason Trost recommended as much throughout today's episode of Eilers & Krejcik Gaming's Zero Latency podcast.

The chief executive of the London-based sports betting business, which operates the Smarkets exchange and SBK sportsbook in the U.K., said it's trying to end up being a designated contract market managed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

"The water's warm," Trost said. "And, I mean, if that sports thing holds, like, why not? You have to."

- The CEO of U.K.-based sports wagering business Smarkets states they're working to end up being a controlled prediction market in the U.S.
- Smarkets has actually meddled state-regulated sports wagering in the U.S. however never attained much market share.
- Now, though, the path Kalshi and other forecast markets laid out could offer Smarkets a way to provide sports event agreement betting, or at least betting on U.S. elections.

The "sports thing" Trost discussed is the continuous offering of sports occasion agreements by Kalshi and Crypto.com, CFTC-regulated exchanges that are shaking up online sports wagering in the U.S.

Those sports occasion contracts are the topic of cease-and-desist letters from numerous state-level regulators arguing they are, in fact, sports wagering, not some sort of financial hedging instrument.

Kalshi and Crypto.com, on the other hand, claim they're under the CFTC's exclusive oversight which what they're doing falls perfectly well within federal law. Legal battles are currently being battled in numerous states over the legality of the sports-related occasion agreements.

At any rate, the agreements are still trading commonly on those CFTC-regulated forecast markets. And what that suggests is there's now a way to bet on sports in all 50 U.S. states, not simply the 39 (plus the District of Columbia) that really legislated sports wagering.

Room for another?

Smarkets delving into the mix would inject more competitors into the still-young service of federally-regulated forecast markets in the U.S. It would also give Smarkets an opportunity to acquire more American clients than it handled with its initial foray stateside.

The company stopped taking bets in Colorado earlier this year and has minimal market share in Indiana, with its SBK sportsbook reporting $322,009 in May handle in the state. That was out of more than $433 million bet with Indiana sportsbooks for the month.

A whale simply positioned a $6.74 K bet backing Ilia Topuria to win the upcoming MMA battle against Oliveira on June 28, 2025! If they're right, they'll win $8.65 K.

Given sports occasion contracts are still being contested in the courts, there's a chance Smarkets might never ever get to use them in the U.S.

Even so, Trost said it's dedicated to introducing without sports, which would still imply it might provide users the option to wager "yes" or "no" on events connected to economics, popular culture, and, especially, politics. He likewise estimated the effort to become a registered DCM in the U.S. will cost Smarkets around $2 million over 2 years.

Kalshi already won a legal battle over election-related contracts, lighting the way for others to follow. Wagering on last year's U.S. governmental election was a popular offering by the forecast market, with more than $500 million in reported.

"Politics are only fascinating in the United States as soon as every two years, four years, a little bit like the Olympics," Trost stated. "But I still think it's worth doing, even if we do not get sports. It's a 1,000,000,000% no-brainer with sports, however I think it's a 100% no-brainer with politics. So we're going to do it, despite whether ... sports gets overruled."

Trost also noted that what's regarded as relatively brand-new in the U.S., the wagering exchange design, has actually been around for a long time elsewhere, particularly, in the U.K. What's actually various is Kalshi went federal with the design, allowing it to get into all 50 states simultaneously.

"The development that Kalshi has done is the regulative innovation, but the design is precisely the like a betting exchange," Trost said.

Everybody's doing it

Smarkets is not the only sports betting company that's taken note of what Kalshi is doing. DraftKings and FanDuel, the undisputed leaders in U.S. sports betting, are watching the situation intently.

FanDuel is owned by Flutter Entertainment, which currently runs a betting exchange in the U.K., Betfair. It was also just recently reported that FanDuel was interested in some sort of collaboration with Kalshi.

Trost stated his long-term vision for Smarkets is to make it a "basic trading platform," where users can purchase and sell stocks, bonds, options, and, yes, forecasts. Eventually, he included, sports wagering will look more like those financial markets.